Economic and Labor Situation in Japan, November 2025

RENGO Announces “Basic Policy for the 2026 Spring Wage Offensive”

RENGO aims to put Japan’s real wages on a trajectory of 1% growth and establish this as the new “wage increase norm” going forward.
From a macroeconomic perspective—focused on sustainably improving the living standards of all working people—and from the standpoint of strengthening initiatives to “raise the base,” “support the base,” and “correct wage disparities” across industries, RENGO sets the overall target for wage increases at 5% or more, consisting of 3% or more for base wage increases and an additional amount equivalent to regular pay raises (maintenance of the wage curve). RENGO is determined to achieve this target.
Small and medium-sized labor unions will review recent wage increase outcomes and wage levels, and proactively demand adjustments to correct disparities. For small and medium-sized unions that have difficulty identifying actual wage levels, a target of 6% or more or at least 18,000 yen is recommended. This includes an additional 1% or more on top of the aforementioned goal for disparity correction.
To rectify wage gaps between different employment types, RENGO will aim for wage increases of around 7%, ensuring that the rate of increase exceeds the growth rate of regional minimum wages.
RENGO confirmed its targets on November 20 at an executive meeting and will formally decide on its demands on November 28.

Labour Force Survey Monthly Results¹

(1) The number of employed persons in September 2025 was 68.63 million, an increase of 490,000 over the same month the previous year. By gender, this included 37.10 million men, up 40,000, and 31.53 million women, up 450,000 from the previous year: the most since comparable data became available in January 1953.

(2) Unemployment
The number of unemployed persons in September 2025 was 1.84 million, up 110,000 from the same month in the previous year.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September was 2.6%, unchanged from the same month the previous year, marking the highest level in 14 months, as labour market conditions remained tight. The unemployment rate was 2.7% for men, down 0.1 points, and 2.4% for women, up 0.1 points over the same month in the previous year.

Units: 10,000 persons

(3) Job Availability
Japan’s job availability in September stood at 1.20, unchanged from the previous month. This ratio means there were 120 job openings for every 100 job seekers.
The ratio of regular employee job offers to applicants was 1.00, unchanged from the previous month.
The ratio of new job offers to applicants, a leading indicator for the labour market, was 2.14, down 0.01 from the previous month. The number of new jobs offers decreased 3.2% from the same month the previous year. By industry, information and communications and wholesale and retail trade decreased 6.8% and 7.4%, respectively.

Industrial Production²

Industrial Production Fluctuates Indecisively
Industrial output in September increased 2.2% over the previous month, the first increase in three months, driven by strong export demand for chip-making machinery.
Production, shipments and inventories increased, while inventory ratio decreased. The industries that mainly contributed to this increase were as follows: (1) production machinery, (2) inorganic and organic chemicals, and (3) fabricated metals, in that order.
According to the Survey of Production Forecasts in Manufacturing, production was expected to increase 1.9% in October and decrease 0.9% in November.

September  2025           2015 average = 100

Family Income and Expenditure Survey³

The data is a key indicator of private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan’s gross domestic product.
(1) Expenditure of Households of Two Persons or More
Average monthly consumption expenditure of households of two or more persons in September was 303,214 yen, up 5.3% in nominal terms and up 1.8% in real terms over the previous year, marking the fifth straight month of growth, as consumers spent more on cars and leisure activities.

(2) Income and Expenditures for Workers’ Households
Average monthly income per household stood at 510,935 yen, up 3.4% in nominal terms but unchanged in real terms from the previous year. The average level of consumption expenditure was 339,762 yen per month, up 10.2% in nominal terms and up 6.6% in real terms year-on-year.

Consumer Prices⁴

The consumer price index (CPI) in September was 112.1 (2020 = 100), up 2.9% over the previous year and 0.1% over the previous month as food costs remained high. Core inflation (CPI less food and energy) was up 3.0% over the previous year and unchanged from the previous month. The inflation rate has remained at or above the Bank of Japan’s 2% price stability target since September 2022.
Food prices, excluding fresh items, climbed 7.6% over the previous year in September, driven by surging costs for items such as rice, chocolate, and chicken. Prices for rice, Japan’s staple food, soared 48.6%. As the government reinstated its subsidies to alleviate the burden of utility bills on households between January and September, energy prices were up 2.3% over a year earlier as the impact of last year’s government subsidies for electricity and gas bills was greater than this year, but still down 1.2% from the previous month.

September 2025

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